Decreasing immigration from abroad slowed population growth across Alabama’s counties in 2024 and 2025, though suburban counties and growth magnets in north and south Alabama continued to add new residents. The one-year metro population growth rate for Huntsville (3%) and Baldwin County (2%) put both among the fastest growing Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the US, with Huntsville at No. 6 and Baldwin County at No. 11.

Nationwide, the rate of population growth slowed sharply.

Printable PDF available here

Figure 1. Numeric Change by County, 2025

The new estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau cover the period between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025. State-level estimates were released earlier this year. A PARCA analysis of that data showed that Alabama’s population growth hit a peak in 2024, driven in equal parts by international migration, new residents moving to Alabama from other countries, and domestic migration, people moving to Alabama from other U.S. states.

In 2025, the international component dropped sharply, while domestic migration edged down modestly. Deaths outnumbered births in Alabama at large and in all but 17 of Alabama’s 67 counties. Statewide and in most counties, the population would be decreasing without growth through domestic or international migration.

Figure 2. Comparing International Migration in Alabama 2024 vs. 2025

In 2024, central urban counties, like Jefferson, Montgomery, and Mobile, were receiving the bulk of new migrants from abroad. Population increases from international migration helped offset the population decline from people moving from those central counties to surrounding suburban counties or to other states.

However, with the drop in international immigration in 2025, Jefferson and Mobile counties lost population in the latest estimates. In Jefferson County, international migration decreased by almost 2,500 compared to 2024. Nearly 3,000 Jefferson County residents moved to other counties or states in 2025. After accounting for natural change and net migration, Jefferson County’s population decreased by 843 residents. Similar trends led to an estimated population decrease of 535 in Mobile. Montgomery County’s natural increase, plus a decline in outmigration, kept its population about even, increasing by 2, according to the estimates.

Figure 3. Population Change and Migration Components, 2025

National Perspective

These population dynamics within metro areas are not unique to Alabama. In its analysis of 2025 data, the Census Bureau noted that among large metro areas, the fastest-growing counties tended to be on the outer edges, indicating a continuing trend toward suburbanization. Meanwhile, central counties tend to draw the greatest number of international migrants.

For example, the central counties in the Nashville and Atlanta metros also see a net outflow of domestic residents. However, in both those cases, those central counties still attracted enough international immigrants to offset domestic outmigration. And those counties also lie at the center of some of the fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the country.

Figure 4. USA Map of Population Change By Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2025

The decline in inflows of international residents depressed growth in central counties and slowed metropolitan growth rates nationwide. The Census Bureau noted that growth in metro areas declined sharply. Average MSA growth was 1.1% between 2023 and 2024, but fell to 0.6% between 2024 and 2025.

Population growth is occurring disproportionately in southern coastal counties and in metro areas in the south. According to Census:

• Geographically, many of the fastest-growing counties were in states along the Southeast coast of the United States, including Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia.
• Among counties with populations of 20,000 or more, nine of the top 10 fastest-growing counties were in the South, as were 45 out of the top 50.

Figure 5. USA Map by County of Rate of Change, 2025

Growth Spots

Madison County, home to Huntsville, continued to add more residents than any other county in Alabama. Growth from domestic migration increased in Madison County, which added more than 10,000 people, even as international immigration decreased.

Figure 6. Population Change and Migration Components, 2025

In neighboring Limestone County, growth tapered as international immigration decreased. However, in adding an estimated 3,285 residents, Limestone continued to rank among the nation’s fastest-growing counties with a 3.3% population increase in 2025. Together, Limestone and Madison County make up the Huntsville Metropolitan Statistical Area, which in 2025 was the nation’s 6th-fastest-growing MSA.

Figure 7. Percentage Population Change in Alabama MSAs

Alabama’s second-fastest-growing MSA consists of just Baldwin County and is officially known as the Daphne-Fairhope-Foley MSA. That MSA also continued to grow rapidly, as part of the growth pattern Census noted: people moving to southern counties along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

Despite Mobile County being right next door, Baldwin and Mobile are considered two separate MSAs. According to the Census Bureau’s analysis of commuting patterns, there is not enough daily interchange of populations between the two counties to consider them a single MSA. Mobile County’s population declined, in part due to a drop in international migration.

Figure 8. Numeric Change in Alabama MSAs

Alabama’s largest MSA is Birmingham, which now includes seven counties: Jefferson, Shelby, St. Clair, Blount, Walker, Chilton, and Bibb, with a population of 1.2 million people. That’s more than double the size of Huntsville, but Birmingham’s MSA is growing more slowly.

In 2025, the MSA added 3,450 people. Most of that growth occurred in Shelby County, which added 2,746 new residents, and St. Clair County, which added 1,160. That put both those counties in the Alabama top 10 for growth, both in pace of growth and number added. Walker, Bibb, and Chilton experienced modest gains. Together, that was enough to offset the decline in Jefferson and Blount counties.

The Auburn-Opelika MSA, which consists of Lee and Macon counties, grew by almost 2,000.

Dothan’s MSA, which includes Geneva, Houston, and Henry counties, added about 1,000 in total. Tuscaloosa County added almost 500 new residents, and Hale County added about 50, but the other two counties in the Tuscaloosa MSA, Greene and Pickens, lost population. So, in total, the four-county MSA was up by just over 300 residents.

Over in East Alabama, Etowah County, which makes up the Gadsden MSA, has posted positive growth for the past three years after several years of decline, adding 411 in 2025. Calhoun County, the Anniston-Oxford MSA grew in 2022 and 2023, but in 2024 and 2025, the estimates point to population decline, a decrease of 469 in 2025.

Huntsville MSA’s north Alabama neighbors in the Decatur and Florence-Muscle Shoals MSA’s grew modestly. In Decatur, Morgan, and Lawrence counties, each added about 200 new residents, a fourth straight year of growth. The Shoals, made up of Colbert and Lauderdale counties, have both been gathering steam in population growth during the current decade, though Lauderdale was estimated to have had a decline of 163 residents in 2025.

Overall, 36 Alabama counties gained population, but only 7 added more than 1,000 people; 31 counties saw population declines.

Rates of Change

The counties losing the population the fastest are in Alabama’s Black Belt. And that trend continued in 2025. Perry, Lowndes, Willcox, Dallas, and Greene counties have each lost 8% or more of their population since 2020. There are now five counties with fewer than 10,000 residents: Bullock, Wilcox, Lowndes, Perry, and Greene.

Figure 9. Rate of Change, Domestic Migration, 2025

Multiple factors are conspiring to drain population from rural Alabama counties. Rural counties also tend not to attract new immigrants from other counties. Domestic migration is also typically low to negative, with younger residents often moving to metropolitan counties where jobs are concentrated. As younger people move away in search of opportunity, the population becomes disproportionately old.

As the Baby Boom ages, that large cohort is beginning to experience increased mortality. As the average age increases, the death rate increases. And since younger people have tended to move to metros, the birth rate has declined.

Figure 10. Rate of Change, Death, 2025

The pattern isn’t confined to rural Alabama. It is also pronounced in the former coal country in the Appalachians, in the Mississippi Delta, and in portions of the West and Midwest.

Figure 11. USA Rate of Population Change by County

Population growth in Alabama and across the country has slowed, particularly when it comes to immigrants coming from abroad, according to the latest estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. The estimates cover the period between July 2024 and July 2025.

Domestic migration into Alabama also decreased but remains higher compared to rates seen in the first two decades of the century. Due to an aging population and lower birth rates, deaths continue to outnumber births in the state. Thus, without in-migration, Alabama’s population would be declining modestly.

Printable PDF available here.

The Census Bureau estimates that by July 2025, Alabama was home to 5.2 million people, an increase of about 30,000 people or 1% compared to 2024. Alabama ranked No. 15 among U.S. states in population growth and No. 20 in percentage population increase over the period.

Even as growth slows, Southern states continued to outpace states in most other regions. South Carolina was No. 1 in rate of growth, and Texas was No. 1 in numeric population gain, adding almost 400,000 over the period. North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Tennessee also ranked in the top 10 for numeric growth. Western states like Idaho, Utah, Washington, and Arizona were also leaders in population growth.

Five states saw population declines, according to the estimates: California, Hawaii, Vermont, New Mexico, and West Virginia.

In 2024, Alabama’s population growth had accelerated to its highest level in decades, adding almost 50,000, but in 2025, growth slowed, according to the estimates.

In 2025, Alabama attracted about 15,000 fewer people through migration. Deaths outpaced births by a slightly wider margin than in 2024.

International migration to Alabama dropped by 13,156, compared to 2024, while domestic migration was down by 1,595.

Despite the slower growth, Alabama’s rate of domestic migration ranked No. 11 in 2025. The domestic migration rate estimates the number of residents from other states moving into a state and adjusts for the receiving state’s population.

Meanwhile, Alabama’s rate of international immigration ranked No. 42 in the US. Historically, Alabama has attracted new residents from abroad at a lower rate than most other states. The most recent estimates capture the last seven months of the Biden administration and the first five months of the Trump administration.

After a surge of immigration in the early years of the Biden Administration, new policies drove down unauthorized crossings sharply in 2024. That trend has continued and accelerated under the Trump Administration, along with a decline in authorized immigration. Thus, the current decline in international immigration is likely to continue.

Alabama’s unemployment rate has been consistently below the U.S. rate since 2019, which appears to be attracting new residents from other states. Census estimates from last year show that population gains are concentrated in metro counties, particularly in North Alabama near Huntsville. Increasing numbers of retirees seeking a warm coastal climate continue to drive growth in Baldwin County on the Alabama Gulf Coast.

Meanwhile, Alabama’s rate of natural population change is weighed down by a higher death rate than most states. Alabama’s death rate is the fifth-highest in the U.S. Only West Virginia, Mississippi, Maine, and Arkansas have rates that are higher. These states tend to share characteristics like elevated poverty, poor health outcomes, and lower rates of access to health care providers.   

This spring, all Alabama high school graduates will have to earn a marker of college and/or career readiness in order to graduate.¹ 

In this installment of PARCA’s Keys to Success series, we visit Opp High School, which has been one of the state’s most successful schools at producing college and career-ready graduates. In fact, for five years running, more seniors were college or career-ready (CCR) than actually earned a diploma. 

In 2024, 94% of Opp’s seniors graduated (beating the state average of 92%), and 99% of seniors ended the year with a marker of college and career readiness, a CCR rate that is 10 percentage points higher than the state average. 

How do they do it?

• More attention per student thanks to small school size
• A close dual enrollment partnership with the local community college
• Creative use of practical, local opportunities for students to earn Career Technical Education credits and credentials
• Practice and deliberate effort on the measures that qualify students for college readiness

PARCA’s Keys to Success series identifies schools and systems that are exceeding expectations and explores how they are doing it. The series aims to identify and share best practices. 

Small Town Personalized Attention 

The City of Opp, located in rural Covington County, was formerly a textile mill town. Despite the closing of the textile mills, Opp has maintained a stable population of around 6,700 people since 2000. 

The school system produces between 80 and 90 graduates per year, which ranks among the 20 smallest school systems in the state. Opp’s percentage of students from economically disadvantaged households is higher than the state average. Thanks to federal anti-poverty education dollars, Opp’s per-student expenditure was slightly above the state average in 2023. 

In some ways, that small size helps Opp. The high school is the center of activity and energy for the entire community. That keeps students and the community engaged. 

“What is going on at school is the hottest thing in town. That is very much an asset for us,” said Opp High School Principal Matt Blake. 

A smaller school can, in some instances, mean each student receives extra attention. For example, in addition to a traditional guidance counselor, Opp High School has a full-time career coach, who works with the counselor, to make sure all students have a plan to progress through school on a trajectory that points toward one of the “three e’s”: graduating from high school, either Enrolled, Employed, or Enlisted.  

Student preparation for college and career readiness begins in middle school, with the career coach visiting students and making them aware of potential career pathways. During orientation, rising ninth graders and their parents are presented with career options, and students begin developing four-year plans to meet both academic and college- and career-readiness markers they’ll need to graduate.

Once at the high school, the counseling suite is highly visible, located at the top of the high school stairs, with glass windows for walls. The visibility serves as a reminder to students of the stream of opportunities available. Opp has a regular stream of visits from college, employment, and military recruiters. 

When Blake moved to Opp from Gulf Shores in 2022, he brought his career coach, Courtney Blake, with him. She also happens to be his wife. The two have creatively conspired to leverage resources to expose students to college and career opportunities.

Community College Collaboration

A primary partner in the CCR enterprise is Opp’s community college, the MacArthur branch of Lurleen B Wallace Community College (LBW).

In the past, more than half of Opp graduates flowed into LBW after graduation. More recently, the relationship is even tighter and starts earlier through dual enrollment. Opp students, while still in high school, make up a healthy share of the college’s enrollment. 

In fact, Opp now delivers all its college-caliber courses in partnership with LBW, rather than offering Advanced Placement courses at the high school. 

In the 2024-2025 school year, Opp students took almost 400 credit hours at LBW, including college-level courses in English and history, calculus, biology, and psychology. That total also included about 52 career tech classes, including industrial maintenance, engines, computer science, and cosmetology. Opp High School students also took aviation courses through Enterprise State Community College.

Some students attend classes on the LBW campus. In other cases, an LBW instructor may come to the high school campus to lead class two days a week, with students led by Opp teachers the other three days, who focus on ACT prep skills and strategies. Opp High School also has its own teachers who are certified to teach dual-enrollment classes on campus at OHS, but through LBW.

Both academic and career-tech courses taken through LBW count toward degrees or certifications. The academic courses can be transferred to universities, allowing Opp graduates to start college with a bank of credits toward a degree.

Taking Creative Advantage of Available Opportunities 

Opp isn’t a big city full of employers and businesses that can offer internships or sponsor training programs for high school students. But the Opp High has a tradition of Career and Technical Education programs that creatively intersect with school and community needs.  

Plant Science teacher, Josh Kyser, is a graduate of the turfgrass management program he now leads. After graduating from Opp, he continued in the field at Auburn, which led to a career in golf course management and design. 

Family ties eventually drew him back to Opp, and after a few twists and turns, he was recruited to serve as the City of Opp’s director of Parks and Recreation. The City maintains the high school’s fields, so he had a close relationship with the school. Eventually, high school leaders persuaded him to lead the program that had launched his career. 

The horticulture class helps care for the school’s athletic fields, which, over time, can lead to students earning turfgrass management and plant biotechnology certifications. Meanwhile, through a competitive grant program, Opp won extra career-tech funding to put students to work and in class during the summer on a school field project. 

The students worked with the City and the county on a project to grade and pave a road from the school to the athletic field. Through their summer work, the students earned money and certifications for operating skid steers, mini-excavators, and bulldozers. Those certifications have real value in the employment marketplace.

In another summer project, students in the plant biotechnology classes designed and constructed a pollinator garden. Students also planted and tended vegetable and herb gardens, projects that were also funded in part with CTE money won through a competitive grant.

This fall, that pollinator garden was fluttering with butterflies and darting with hummingbirds. The vegetable and herb gardens yielded beans, collards, Brussels sprouts, and other ingredients that contributed to a community banquet organized by the students in the food and nutrition program. 

In preparing for the event, students earned ServeSafe certifications, a credential often required for those working in the restaurant industry. The preparation and execution also dovetailed with nutrition science course credits.

Increasing College Readiness

Opp High School has also ramped up student preparation for four-year colleges, focusing on improving performance on the ACT college admissions test. 

Historically, most college-bound Opp graduates started at a community college, then transferred to four-year universities after earning college credits.

With the sharp rise in students taking community college courses in high school, students are in a better position to go straight to a four-year college after graduation. However, that means ACT scores take on more importance for college admission and scholarships.   

Blake, who spent time as a football coach, recognizes the value of practice. 

So, in his effort to improve student performance on the ACT, Blake created more opportunities for students to take the test. The school pays for ninth-graders to take the Pre-ACT, in addition to administering it to 10th-graders in the fall. 

The school then offers students a first attempt at the ACT in the spring semester of their 10th-grade year.

In January, teachers begin reviewing the test and have students take a mock version of the ACT. 

They take mock versions again in February. Using a digital test reader, students receive immediate results. Teachers identify questions that tripped up students and talk through the answers, and address the underlying skill.

Students participate in a two-day ACT boot camp. The school brings in an ACT specialist in Math and ELA to lead a two-day intensive review before the last mock exam. This allows students to use the strategies and tips from the last mock exam to build confidence in their abilities. 

In late March, juniors take the real test, the required junior year administration.

Blake concedes that he has greatly increased the emphasis on the ACT. However, he doesn’t think that emphasis distracts from educational goals. “Test-taking skills aren’t frivolous,” he said. “It teaches problem-solving and critical thinking. And they’ll have to take similar tests in college or if they apply to graduate school.”

Results

Between 2023 and 2024, the percentage of students earning a benchmark score on the ACT leapt from 34% in 2023 to 52% in 2024, exceeding the state benchmarking rate of 42%

The Opp graduating class of 2024 posted major gains on the ACT in every subject, outperforming the state in all four subjects.

The college-going rate in Opp rose from 62% in 2022 to 68% in 2024, far exceeding the state college-going rate of 57%. 

The gains were particularly pronounced in the percentage of students who went straight to a four-year college after graduating from high school, rising from 10% in 2022 to 31% in 2024. 

Conclusion

Blake said Opp’s success has resulted from long-term planning by the school, students, the system, and the state.

The school works with students and parents, beginning in middle school, to chart a student’s path through choices and courses that lead to a college or career goal. The school works with local partners such as LBW Community College, Opp’s Mizell Memorial Hospital, and the City of Opp to expand work and internship opportunities for students.

The school also works with the system and the state to pay for enhanced opportunities. The school has been aggressive and creative in pursuing grants and establishing budget priorities in order to pay for novel CTE programs, summer work opportunities, and intensive ACT training for faculty and students.

As the requirement that all students earn a CCR credential goes into effect this fall, the State Department of Education and the governor’s office have indicated continued support for enhanced investment in College and Career Readiness. The Governor’s proposed budget maintains support for career coaches and for K-12 career tech programs and initiatives. The budget proposes increasing support for dual enrollment through the Alabama Community College System by $10 million. The Legislature will consider the budget during its session, which opened earlier this month.

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Footnotes

1. In order to demonstrate college and career readiness, a student must achieve one of the following:
   1. Score college-ready in at least one subject on the ACT
   2. Score at the silver level or above on the WorkKeys Assessment.
   3. Earn a passing score on an Advanced Placement or International Baccalaureate Exam.
   4. Successfully earn a Career Technical Education credential or earn Career and Technical Education (CTE) completer status.
   5. Earn dual enrollment credit at a college or university.
   6. Successfully enlist in the military.
   7. Complete a CTE program of study.
   8. Complete an in-school youth apprenticeship. ↩︎

Due to a new higher standard, the number and percentage of third graders who failed to meet the grade-level reading benchmark rose in 2025. However, taking the higher standard into account, this year’s third graders showed continued improvement, indicating that the state’s focus on improving early grades literacy is continuing to pay dividends.

This spring, 11.6% of students failed to reach the benchmark on the Reading portion of the state’s standardized test, the Alabama Comprehensive Assessment Program (ACAP). Had the higher bar been in place in 2024, 13.7% of 3rd graders would have scored below the cut. In 2023, 20.8% of 3rd Graders would have scored below the cut.

Printable PDF available here.

In 2025, more students, 49,460, cleared the bar despite the higher standard. At the same time, more students, 6,470, fell below the reading sufficiency benchmark. The 2025 cohort of third graders is larger than previous years. That could mean more students will be required to repeat third grade. However, students who scored below the benchmark are offered intensive summer instruction, retesting, and alternative ways to qualify for promotion.

Improved performance

For the second year, the biggest gains in the percentage of third graders clearing the reading benchmark have occurred predominantly in rural school systems in the Black Belt. Those systems have high rates of economic disadvantage among students and have traditionally trailed other systems on various academic measures, but they have been making gains in reading.

This year, only 4% of Wilcox County students scored below grade level. That puts the system in the top 20 for performance, even though 91% of students in Wilcox County are economically disadvantaged.

Two systems, Orange Beach and Satsuma, had all their tested third graders reading on grade.

Breaking the Connection Between Poverty and Poor Reading Performance

While there is still a correlation between higher levels of economic disadvantage and high rates of reading struggles, the relationship has gotten weaker over time, with more high-poverty systems, particularly in rural areas, improving performance.

Other high-poverty systems, often in urban areas, are still struggling to close the gap. Large urban systems like Montgomery County and Birmingham City have higher concentrations and larger numbers of students testing below grade level. However, those systems also have magnet schools where all students achieved the reading benchmark. Within larger school systems, schools with similar demographics vary significantly when it comes to reading results.

The scatterplot chart below compares the percentage of students in the school who are below grade level on reading to the percentage of students from economically disadvantaged households. The higher on the chart a system is, the better its reading performance. The systems shaded green and lying to the right are schools with lower economic disadvantage. The size of the system’s circle corresponds to the number of third graders who failed to achieve the reading benchmark.

Schools

Despite the higher bar, in 42 schools, all third graders who were tested passed the reading benchmark. That included Princeton Elementary in the Birmingham system and three schools in the Montgomery County System: Bear Exploration Center, Macmillan International at McKee, and Forest Avenue Elementary School. The schools where all third graders met the benchmark ranged from Georgiana, where 86% of students are from economically disadvantaged households, to Mountain Brook and Crestline elementary schools, where only 2% of students are economically disadvantaged.

The two schools with the largest number of third graders who are below grade level in reading are virtual schools: the Alabama Virtual Academy at Eufaula City Schools, where 421 students, or 37%, failed to make the benchmark, and the Alabama Connections Academy of Limestone County, where 290 students, or 32% scored under the benchmark.

For Students Who Failed to Score At or Above the Benchmark

The 6,480 students who failed to reach the benchmark are in jeopardy of being required to repeat 3^rd grade, under the terms of the Alabama Literacy Act. However, there are several routes for promotion to the fourth grade.

Students who failed to clear the new reading sufficiency benchmark have access to intensive summer literacy camps sponsored by local school systems. After the intervention, they will be able to retest.

If they still fail to clear the bar, teachers and school officials have alternative means for evaluating the students’ reading skills. Other good-faith exemptions exist. In 2024, 4,808 students failed to pass the reading sufficiency benchmark. After retesting and applying exemptions, only 452 students were retained due to the Literacy Act, according to the Alabama Daily News reporting.

Second Grade Results

Also included in the data release were second-grade results. The cut score also went up for second grade. The second-grade score is intentionally set at a higher threshold so that more students who might be encountering reading struggles can be identified and receive intervention. Due to the higher bar, more students failed to meet the grade level sufficiency benchmark, 19% in 2025 compared to 17% in 2024. The 10,423 second-grade students who scored below the benchmark were encouraged to attend summer literacy camps and should receive special attention throughout their third-grade year.

Background

The intense interest in 3rd-grade reading is the result of the 2019 Literacy Act. The Act was modeled on similar legislation enacted in Florida and Mississippi. Both of those states saw large gains in reading performance on national standardized tests. The laws are based on the premise that students have to be reading on grade level by fourth grade. Students are taught to read from Kindergarten through third grade. In fourth grade, students are expected to read material to learn.

Numerous studies have found that students who aren’t reading on grade level by fourth grade are more likely to struggle academically and fail to complete high school. Low literacy skills are associated with difficulties in the job market and poor health outcomes.

While the Literacy Act’s grade retention provision received attention, the more consequential portions of the bill were its increased investment in improving literacy instruction, early screening for reading difficulties, and requirements for interventions and communication with parents. The Act re-energized the Alabama Reading Initiative and led to statewide training of teachers in techniques grounded in the science of reading.

Since implementation, Alabama has seen various measures of reading performance rise. Alabama is one of only two states (Louisiana is the other) in which 4th-grade students are performing better in reading than before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the 2024 National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP).  

New population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau place Mobile as the state’s second-largest city, behind booming Huntsville and ahead of Birmingham and Montgomery, both of which saw population declines according to the most recent estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Mobile’s new status takes into account the city’s 2023 annexations of neighborhoods in Mobile County that were expected to add about 20,000 to the city’s population. According to revised Census estimates, the city jumped from less than 190,000 before 2020 to almost 210,000, pushing it well ahead of Birmingham which, for 2024, had an estimated population of 196,818.

Printable PDF available here.

However, despite its annexation bump, Census estimates show Mobile is still losing population, dropping by over 500 over the past year to an estimated 201,367. Birmingham and Montgomery are also continuing to see population declines. If current trends prevail, the three cities seem destined to continue jockeying back and forth. Currently, the population estimates have Birmingham in third, just in front of Montgomery, at 195,818.

The biggest surprise of the estimates was the small Jefferson County hamlet of Brookside, which had the highest population growth rate of any municipality in the state at 13.2%. The town added 158 residents, bringing its total to 1,357 residents. The town has a new neighborhood under construction that appears to be drawing new residents. Small towns and cities around Huntsville and in Shelby and St. Clair counties, outside of Birmingham, saw higher rates of growth in percentage terms, as did suburban cities around Montgomery. Small towns in Wiregrass surrounding Dothan and Enterprise also showed growth in percentage terms. And several Baldwin County communities ranked near the top in terms of percentage growth.

In terms of growth in numbers, the city of Huntsville is the state champ, drawing in another 4,174 new residents in 2024. The City of Madison, Huntsville’s suburban neighbor, added 3,007, ranking third in the state in numeric growth, and Athens, which also borders Huntsville, added 1,641, ranking fourth.

The City of Foley in Baldwin County grew by 3,012, ranking second in the state in numeric terms and tying for second in percentage growth at 12%. Foley’s fellow Baldwin County city of Loxley also grew 12%. Fairhope added 1,011 according to the estimates, ranking 8th in the state. Gulf Shores and Daphne also ranked in the state’s top 20 in the number of residents added.

Cross state rivals Tuscaloosa and Auburn continue to grow with Auburn adding 1,310 to edge out Tuscaloosa’s gain of 1,272 new residents. Auburn also has the secret weapon of Opelika next door, which added 1,313 new residents in 2024. That far outpaces Northport which grew by 280. Together, Tuscaloosa and Northport have about 150,00 residents compared to Auburn and Opelika’s 120,000.

Economic development—using public funds to incentivize private economic investments—is a core government function practiced by both parties and at all levels of government.

Numerous public and public-private partnerships in Alabama are tasked with some form of economic development, including the Alabama Innovation Commission. One of the Commission’s goals is to build up Alabama’s technology sector, including start-ups.

One strategy sometimes used to support such a goal is investor tax credits, including angel investing credits. Twenty-five states currently provide some form of investor incentive tax credit programs, a number of which offer refundable credits to out-of-state investors with no in-state tax liability.

Alabama has no such incentive program that directly benefits out-of-state investors.

New PARCA research asks if investor tax credits are an efficient way for Alabama to enhance its technology sector. 

Access the full report here.

Today, the Business Education Alliance of Alabama (BEA) is releasing Alabama Can Improve Student Achievement and Prepare a Future Workforce: Here’s How-Part 2, a follow-up to the Governor’s Commission on Teaching and Learning’s report issued in December of 2023. The Alabama Legislature financially supported many of the Commission’s recommendations, and today’s release by the BEA follows up on what remains to be done.

The research for Alabama Can was conducted by the Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama (PARCA).

On January 18, 2023, Governor Kay Ivey issued Executive Order 730, establishing the Governor’s Commission on Teaching and Learning. The executive order charged the 13 Commission members with providing thorough and thoughtful recommendations for enhancing the quality of elementary and secondary education in Alabama.

The Commission met eight times, hearing from state and national educational leaders, as well as receiving input from the public. Based on the information gathered, the Commission issued a series of recommendations contained in a final report issued in December 2023.

Alabama Can Improve Student Achievement and Prepare a Future Workforce: Here’s How-Part 2 seeks to refocus attention on recommendations, particularly those supported by the Legislature, the Department of Education, and the State Board of Education, and which are showing results. Items examined include fully funding key academic initiatives, attracting and retaining teachers, improving the learning environment, and supporting students from early childhood to career.

As the report states, in the Spring of 2024, the percentage of Alabama 3rd graders scoring proficient on the state standardized test of English Language Arts (ELA) jumped by nine percentage points to 62%, a remarkable increase rarely seen in educational statistics.

Even more encouraging, economically disadvantaged third graders made even greater gains compared to the prior year, a 13-percentage point increase in ELA proficiency, up to 53%. That produced the smallest gap in proficiency rates between economically disadvantaged and all students since the test, the Alabama Comprehensive Assessment Program (ACAP), was launched in 2021.

That’s progress on educational disparity, a central challenge for Alabama, as highlighted in the Governor’s Commission’s report.

This progress did not occur randomly. It follows five years of committed policy from and sustained investment by the Governor, the Alabama Legislature, the Alabama Board of Education, and the Alabama Department of Education. That investment more than doubled the amount spent on K-3 reading instruction to over $140 million annually in support of the Alabama Literacy Act of 2019.

Joe Morton, the chairman and president of the Business Education Alliance of Alabama states, “This report proves that the right amount of funding spent on the right initiatives propels Alabama’s schools and future workforce forward at the speed necessary to keep Alabama’s economic engine running soundly.”

The report will be shared with Governor Kay Ivey, Lt. Governor Will Ainsworth, State Superintendent Eric Mackey, members of the State Board of Education, and each member of the Alabama Legislature.  

After being hit hard with declines during the Covid-19 pandemic, Birmingham and Mobile saw an ebb in population declines, while Huntsville and cities in Baldwin County, along with Auburn-Opelika and Tuscaloosa, continued to grow at a rapid pace. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates released this month point to widespread growth in cities in the northern tier of the state, and in the Wiregrass.

Printable PDF available here.

Populations in smaller towns of the Alabama Black Belt, and west and central Alabama continue to decline modestly, according to the estimates. The population also dropped in Montgomery. The capital city didn’t lose as many people as Birmingham in the first year of the pandemic but has seen steady losses over the past three years.

Montgomery’s estimated population decline of 1,657 was the largest drop among Alabama cities and compares to a decline of 695 in Mobile and 243 in Birmingham.

That allowed Birmingham to return to No. 2 in population among Alabama cities. Huntsville continues to move farther into the lead, with a population now topping 225,000.

In terms of metro area population, Birmingham is still more than twice as large, but growth there is occurring away from the central city.

Close-in suburbs Vestavia, Mountain Brook, and Homewood saw population declines, but farther from the city center, Shelby County cities like Chelsea, Pelham, and Calera saw growth.

Despite declines in Montgomery, Pike Road, Prattville, and Millbrook saw increases.

While Huntsville added the most people, adjacent Athens and not-too-distant Decatur and Florence are continuing to see population growth.

Though Mobile County cities are experiencing some population declines, it is clear that the growth in nearby Baldwin County is coming from domestic in-migration. Far more people are arriving in cities like Fairhope, Foley, Daphne, and Gulf Shores than the population declines in Mobile County would produce.

When looking at the entire country, it is plain to see that whatever population change is going on in Alabama pales in comparison to the movement in other parts of the country. New York City’s population declined by over 77,000 in 2023 according to the estimates. Meanwhile, Texas cities like Fort Worth and San Antonio passed more than 20,000 new residents apiece. Closer to home, Atlanta added over 12,000, Charlotte over 15,000, and Jacksonville, Fla, over 14,000.

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More Alabama high school students graduated ready for college or careers in 2023, according to data recently released by the Alabama Department of Education.

Printable PDF available here.

Students in the Class of 2023 made gains on all measures, bouncing back from the setbacks suffered during the pandemic and closing the gap between the percentage of students receiving a diploma and the percentage of students meeting the definition of college and career readiness: 91% of seniors graduated, 84% of seniors were college and career ready. That’s the highest readiness rate ever recorded.

The results show progress toward a goal established by the state Legislature and adopted by the State Board of Education that all students demonstrate college and career readiness in order to graduate.

More seniors graduated in 2023, even though this cohort of seniors was smaller than the Class of 2022. Alabama’s college and career readiness rate (CCR) increased by five percentage points over the levels recorded in 2022.

In percentage terms, student readiness increased on every measure. However, college readiness, as measured by scores on the ACT, is still lower for the Class of 2023 than it was for graduating classes before the pandemic.

Still, improved performance on the ACT accounted for the biggest gains in the number of students reaching the CCR benchmark. Follow this link for PARCA’s analysis of ACT Scores for the Class of 2023.

Close behind were big gains in the number of students earning the CCR by successfully completing career-oriented courses taught at high schools, vocational centers, or community colleges, courses known as career technical education. Also, the number and percentage of students earning a career-ready score on ACT’s WorkKeys test increased. A deeper dive into 2023 WorkKeys results is available here. The number of students earning credit through dual enrollment courses at community colleges or universities also increased.

Alabama’s high school graduation rate is among the highest in the country, though that is a relatively recent phenomenon. In 2012, Alabama’s high school graduation rate was 75%, trailing the national average of 80%. By 2018, Alabama’s graduation rate had climbed to 90%, exceeding the U.S. rate of 85%. In 2022, the most recent available year for comparison, Alabama’s graduation rate was tied with the U.S. at 88%.

With the sharp rise in the graduation rate came concerns that some students were being awarded diplomas but weren’t prepared for the next step. In 2018, despite that 90% graduation rate, Alabama’s college and career readiness rate was still at 75%.

Pressure to close that gap between graduation and college and career readiness has been building. Last year, the Legislature passed a requirement that by 2026, all students, in order to graduate, must have met one of the Alabama Board of Education’s definitions of college and career readiness. The Legislature subsequently provided $25 million in FY 2024 to support schools in expanding opportunities for college and career readiness. Last year, Gov. Ivey’s Commission on Teaching and Learning recommended allocating $25 million in ongoing support for the grant program.

Students can demonstrate that they are ready for college or the workforce in several ways:

1. Achieve a benchmark score in one subject on the ACT. Benchmarking on the ACT indicates that a student is likely to succeed in a college class in that subject.
2. Earn a Silver Certification or above on the ACT WorkKeys test. WorkKeys is a test of knowledge, communication, and comprehension as they are applied in the workplace. Scoring Silver or above indicates a student is ready to enter the workforce in most career fields.
3. Earn college credit through Advanced Placement or International Baccalaureate courses taken in high school.
4. Earn college credit through dual enrollment. A high school student can complete courses at a community college or university while in high school. These can be academic or career-related courses.
5. Complete a progression of Career Technical Education courses in a field.
6. Earn an Industry Recognized Credential as part of a career technical education course.
7. Participate successfully in an In-School Youth Apprenticeship Program approved by the Alabama Office of Apprenticeship.
8. Successfully enlist in the military.

While progress is being made, gaps remain.

In 29 school systems, all graduates were college and/or career-ready. In 20 of those systems, more seniors were college and career-ready than graduated.

On the other hand, in six school systems, the CCR rate was 20 percentage points lower than the graduation rate, indicating that 20% or more of the students who received diplomas hadn’t demonstrated readiness for college or the workforce.

The gaps in graduation rates between subgroups within the school population are relatively narrow: 93% of White students graduate compared to 89% of Black Students and 87% of Hispanic students. Gaps are wider when it comes to college and career readiness: 89% of White students graduate college and career-ready, but only 76% of Blacks and 79% of Hispanics do. Looking at the individual CCR measures, the gap between Blacks and Whites is highest in the percentage of students benchmarking on the ACT. It’s narrowest in terms of the percentage of students earning credit through career technical education. In that category, Black and Hispanic students have a higher CCR rate than Whites.

Using the tabs and menus in the visualization, you can explore the results for individual schools and school systems.

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Please consider supporting PARCA. A contribution to PARCA is an investment in our state’s future. As a 501(c)3, charitable contributions allow PARCA to maintain its independence and ability to provide non-partisan support to communities throughout the state. All donations are tax deductible.

VOICES for Alabama’s Children published the 2023 Alabama Kids Count Data Book today, marking the 30th edition of the book published by the nonprofit. For the 8th year in a row, PARCA worked with VOICES as a data partner for the project.

– Children of color and children in poverty are shown to have much poorer outcomes and much poorer achievements in education.

– Child population continues to decrease. Over the last year, the number of children grew in only 20 of 67 counties.

– Children in Alabama are becoming increasingly more diverse ethnically and racially. While white and Black child populations are declining, since 2000, Hispanic children grew approximately 276%. The Asian/Pacific Islander population grew by 120%.

– The infant mortality rate has slightly decreased from 8.1 to 7.6 per 1,000 live births from 2011-2021. In real numbers, that means that 443 babies did not live to their 1st birthday in 2021. Maternity care is critical. 34.3% of Alabama counties are defined as maternity care deserts. More than 28% of Alabama women had no birthing hospital within 30 minutes, which is more than double the U.S. rate.

– In 2022, the percentage of Alabama high school students meeting college and career ready requirements was 79.1% from 76.5% in 2021.

– 2023 Work-based learning programs (Dual Enrollment and Career Training Programs) are estimated to have had an economic impact of $420,209,126.

– From 2015-2023 there has been a 16.9% increase in the number of children entering foster care services. Parental drug use is the leading reason for children entering foster care, making up 44%, followed by neglect at 22%.

– 10.4% of children in the state are living in extreme poverty. Black and Hispanic populations are disproportionately affected (38.3% and 36.7% respectively), while white children make up 13.5% of children in extreme poverty.

See how children in all 67 counties of our state are faring in education, health, economic security, and more. VOICES believers that every child in Alabama should have access and opportunity to thrive and become all they can be, and hopes that by utilizing this book’s insights, we can identify the challenges, set priorities, track our progress, and achieve real outcomes for children and families.

Access the 2023 Alabama Kids Count Data Book here.

Want to see this data at the national level? Visit the national KIDS COUNT Data Center to access hundreds of indicators, download data and create reports and graphics!