Passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1) in the U.S. House has sparked discussions about the impact of reductions in federal funding across the U.S. KFF, a nonprofit policy analysis organization formerly known as Kaiser Family Foundation, estimates that the House Budget Committee’s reconciliation bill would reduce federal Medicaid spending by $791 billion without accounting for interactions that would lower estimates to $723 billion. Almost 85% of the total savings derived from five features:

• Mandating work and reporting requirements ($280 billion),
• Repealing rules simplifying Medicaid eligibility and renewal ($167 billion),
• Creating a moratorium on new or increased provider taxes ($89 billion),
• Revising state-directed payment limitations ($73 billion), and
• Increasing the frequency of eligibility re-determinations for the ACA expansion group ($53 billion).

Approximately $357 billion of the reductions would only apply to states that adopted ACA expansion.

Printable PDF available here.

Federal cuts to states of $723 billion over 10 years would represent 11% of federal spending on Medicaid over the period. KFF estimates that the cuts range from 5% in Alabama, Wisconsin, and Wyoming to 15% in Washington, Louisiana, and Illinois.

Congressional Budget Office estimates a 10.3 million loss of Medicaid enrollment by 2034, representing 12% of projected enrollment in that year. At the state level, the largest reductions in Medicaid enrollment would be in Washington and Virginia, decreasing by 25% and 20%, respectively. In Alabama, that would be about 4% or approximately 47,000 people.

As described in a previous post, Alabama receives more than $60 billion in federal transfer payments to individuals from Social Security, unemployment benefits, educational benefits such as Pell Grants, or as payments on behalf of individuals in Medicare or Medicaid, etc.

As the Economic Innovation Group noted in its report, The Great Transfer-mation: How American Communities Became Reliant on Income from Government, the main reason federal transfers have increased is the increase in the percentage of the population over the age of 65. Other economic factors have contributed to a reliance on federal transfers, particularly in rural areas with declining economic conditions.

Currently, among the transfer payments are approximately $15.5 billion (2022) to medical providers on behalf of Medicare recipients and another $7.6 billion (2022) on behalf of Medicaid patients, including covering approximately 44.7% of births in Alabama in 2023. Rates vary dramatically across counties, with 78.6% of births in Wilcox County covered by Medicaid to a low of 23.3% in Shelby County. Georgetown University’s McCourt School for Public Policy found that many small towns are dependent on Medicaid/CHIP funding. With 48.6% of children in rural areas of Alabama enrolled in 2023, the state ranks 12^th in the nation on that metric.

This past legislative session, the Alabama Legislature passed Senate Bill 102, expanding Medicaid benefits for pregnant women “with an estimated addition of $1 million annually for fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028, consisting of $726,300 in federal funds and $273,700 in state funds, by providing certain prenatal coverage to women found presumptively eligible by a qualified provider.” Governor Kay Ivey signed the bill on May 1.

Many medical facilities in Alabama depend on federal funding from Medicaid and Medicare patients. According to KFF, Medicare covered 63% of certified nursing facility residents in Alabama, while Medicaid covered approximately 13%, with only 24% covered by other private funding sources.

For the 80 hospitals in Alabama, operating margins were approximately 2.9% in 2023. However, they are generally thinner in poorer rural areas of the state. Nationwide, operating margins in rural hospitals are notoriously thin, with 44% of rural hospitals operating in the red. According to KFF, “As of July 2024, Medicaid was the primary payer for 63% of nursing facility residents; Medicare for 13% of residents; and the remaining 24% of residents had another primary payer (ex. private insurance, out-of-pocket, etc.) Medicare does not generally cover long-term care but does cover up to 100 days of skilled nursing facility care following a qualifying hospital stay.” 

In states without Medicaid expansion, just over half (53%) of rural hospitals operate in the red. Reductions in Medicaid or Medicare could have a significant impact on rural hospitals. KFF reports that rural hospitals had an average operating margin of 1.7% in 2023. Reductions in these amounts, whether direct payments to individuals or payments on behalf of recipients, as in the case of Medicaid and Medicare, would reduce, dollar for dollar, the purchasing power in those communities.

Using the slider and program selector in the visualization below, estimates of how a percentage decrease for each kind of transfer can be adjusted to find dollar amounts for hypothetical decreases:

Alabama is not alone. The same kind of dependence can be seen across the country.

There are common patterns across the places where economic activity has been challenging, including the Texas Valley, the Mississippi Delta, Appalachia, and tribal territories. Still, many communities have aging populations, with high percentages of transfer payments compared to earned personal income, as shown below:

For details on the calculation of personal income and transfer payments, see this post on Github:
https://github.com/EIG-Research/EIG-Great-Transfer-Mation

New population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau place Mobile as the state’s second-largest city, behind booming Huntsville and ahead of Birmingham and Montgomery, both of which saw population declines according to the most recent estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Mobile’s new status takes into account the city’s 2023 annexations of neighborhoods in Mobile County that were expected to add about 20,000 to the city’s population. According to revised Census estimates, the city jumped from less than 190,000 before 2020 to almost 210,000, pushing it well ahead of Birmingham which, for 2024, had an estimated population of 196,818.

Printable PDF available here.

However, despite its annexation bump, Census estimates show Mobile is still losing population, dropping by over 500 over the past year to an estimated 201,367. Birmingham and Montgomery are also continuing to see population declines. If current trends prevail, the three cities seem destined to continue jockeying back and forth. Currently, the population estimates have Birmingham in third, just in front of Montgomery, at 195,818.

The biggest surprise of the estimates was the small Jefferson County hamlet of Brookside, which had the highest population growth rate of any municipality in the state at 13.2%. The town added 158 residents, bringing its total to 1,357 residents. The town has a new neighborhood under construction that appears to be drawing new residents. Small towns and cities around Huntsville and in Shelby and St. Clair counties, outside of Birmingham, saw higher rates of growth in percentage terms, as did suburban cities around Montgomery. Small towns in Wiregrass surrounding Dothan and Enterprise also showed growth in percentage terms. And several Baldwin County communities ranked near the top in terms of percentage growth.

In terms of growth in numbers, the city of Huntsville is the state champ, drawing in another 4,174 new residents in 2024. The City of Madison, Huntsville’s suburban neighbor, added 3,007, ranking third in the state in numeric growth, and Athens, which also borders Huntsville, added 1,641, ranking fourth.

The City of Foley in Baldwin County grew by 3,012, ranking second in the state in numeric terms and tying for second in percentage growth at 12%. Foley’s fellow Baldwin County city of Loxley also grew 12%. Fairhope added 1,011 according to the estimates, ranking 8th in the state. Gulf Shores and Daphne also ranked in the state’s top 20 in the number of residents added.

Cross state rivals Tuscaloosa and Auburn continue to grow with Auburn adding 1,310 to edge out Tuscaloosa’s gain of 1,272 new residents. Auburn also has the secret weapon of Opelika next door, which added 1,313 new residents in 2024. That far outpaces Northport which grew by 280. Together, Tuscaloosa and Northport have about 150,00 residents compared to Auburn and Opelika’s 120,000.

The sharp drop in overdose deaths in 2024, both nationally and in Jefferson County, wasn’t an accident, according to members of the task force that works to combat the epidemic of drug-related deaths. Instead, it resulted from public policy changes and the geographically targeted deployment of resources.

Figure 1. Trends in Accidental Drug and Opioid Overdose Deaths in Jefferson County, 2012-2024. Source: Jefferson County Coroner’s Office data.

Printable PDF available here.

Thanks to those interventions, Jefferson County saw its first decline in overdose deaths since 2018. According to data from the Jefferson County Coroner’s Office, drug overdose deaths peaked in the county in 2023, with 483 accidental drug-related deaths. That is more than double the number of people who died by homicide (197) in Jefferson County in 2023. And it is more than triple the number of overdose deaths Jefferson County experienced in 2012.

Accidental overdose deaths from opioids began rising in the 1990s with the proliferation of prescription pills. That was followed by a resurgence in heroin use, which was in turn followed by the arrival of fentanyl, an extremely potent synthetic opioid. Beginning in 2020, traffic fentanyl surged into Jefferson County, resulting in a skyrocketing death toll from overdoses.

In Jefferson County, the arrival of fentanyl hit the Black community especially hard. Historically, White deaths from drug overdoses had greatly outnumbered Blacks. But by 2023, Black overdose deaths eclipsed whites.

Figure 2. Trends in Overdose Deaths By Race, Jefferson County. Source: Jefferson County Coroner’s Office data.

Health officials nationally and in Alabama have been working to catch up with the epidemic. In 2017, Governor Kay Ivey established the Alabama Opioid Overdose and Addiction Council, which pulled together the state departments of Public Health and Mental Health, local health providers, and a broad coalition of health care providers, drug treatment non-profits, and first responders. Much of the coordinating and data-gathering work has been funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and its Overdose Data to Action grant program. According to the CDC, factors driving the decline in overdose deaths include the “widespread, data-driven distribution of naloxone, which is a life-saving medication that can reverse an overdose; better access to evidence-based treatment for substance use disorders; shifts in the illegal drug supply; a resumption of prevention and response after pandemic-related disruptions; and continued investments in prevention and response programs like CDC’s flagship Overdose Data to Action (OD2A) program.”

OD2A funding to the Alabama Department of Public Health and the Jefferson County Department of Health has supported the creation of a data-gathering and sharing program that is providing real-time information about where overdoses are occurring. Emergency medical services providers and hospitals are reporting overdose encounters as they happen, allowing public health officials to zero in on communities and even specific neighborhoods where overdoses are on the rise. Jefferson County’s Health Department has worked with the Jefferson County Coroner’s Office, health care providers, and researchers at the University of Alabama at Birmingham and other local agencies to gather, analyze, and act on the data.

With the data mapped and analyzed, partners from the healthcare and treatment community, first responders, and public health officials routinely meet to discuss patterns and develop a concerted approach to overdose prevention. Figure 3 shows the concentration of overdose deaths by zip code, for the peak year, 2023. Using the slider and directional arrows, you can cycle through years of data to see the rising numbers and shifting geographic concentration.

Figure 3. Mapping Overdose Deaths By Zip Code, by Year. Source: Jefferson County Coroner’s Office data.

Policy changes identified and lobbied for by the Overdose and Addiction Council set the stage for the interventions that appear to be driving down deaths. First, in June of 2022, the Alabama Legislature decriminalized Fentanyl test strips. Before the change, the strips that allow the detection of potentially fatal levels of the drug were considered drug paraphernalia, discouraging their availability and use.  Then, in March 2023, naloxone was made an over-the-counter medication, increasing access to the overdose-reversing treatment and allowing for distribution in the community.

In the wake of the changes and with an influx of funding from both federal and state opioid settlement money, a coalition of groups pushed out resources and training to make the life-saving resources available. The Alabama Department of Mental Health significantly increased naloxone distribution, distributing 46,482 kits at Back-to-School events, End Addiction Walks, and conferences and trainings for treatment providers serving high-risk individuals, local and rural law enforcement officers, and first responders. JCDH has an online Naloxone education portal on its website, www.jcdh.org, and sends Naloxone Kits and Fentanyl Test Strips by mail at no cost to people who request the kits through the website. In addition, JCDH provides both products through dispensing boxes at its health centers and at distribution boxes in other community locations.  JCDH also partners with local EMS, police, fire and rescue, and some independent pharmacies to provide the supplies as well.

Using Jefferson County Coroner’s data, the Jefferson County Health Department identified particular neighborhoods where overdose deaths were on the rise. To counter the trend, the department found avenues to distribute free Naloxone and Fentanyl test strips. They also launched public information campaigns, advertising the dangers of the drugs and resources for treatment services, in some cases, displaying the messages on the public transit buses that served the affected areas.

Jefferson County Health Officer Dr. David Hicks applauded the cooperation and the progress but stressed the need to sustain the effort.

“As we continue to address the challenges posed by overdose deaths in our community, it is crucial to recognize the progress we have made and the work that still lies ahead,” Hicks said. “Our collective efforts in prevention, education, and treatment are making a difference, but we must remain vigilant and committed to saving lives. Together, we can build a healthier and safer Jefferson County.”

PARCA is involved in an effort to encourage similar efforts to share, analyze, and act on data. The Birmingham-Jefferson County Justice Governance Partnership brings together county government, municipalities, multiple law enforcement agencies, schools, health providers, non-profits, and community groups to develop a common understanding and cooperative solutions to community challenges. For more information, visit the BJC-JGP website.

Leaders from city and county government, education, philanthropy, social services, and community are launching a new partnership to decrease violence and increase health and opportunity in Jefferson County.  

Coming in the wake of a record-setting year for homicides in the City of Birmingham, the Birmingham-Jefferson County Justice Governance Partnership (BJC-JGP) seeks to build a coordinated and sustained effort to understand and address the conditions that give rise to violence and the underlying vulnerabilities of the neighborhoods where violence is concentrated. The partnership grows out of a recognition that law enforcement alone cannot solve the problem and that community members and an array of agencies play a part in the solution.    

The Justice Governance Partnership is being launched with the support of the Aspen Institute’s Criminal Justice Reform Initiative (CJRI). The Aspen Institute is a nonpartisan educational and policy studies organization based in Washington, DC. Aspen is known for convening thought leaders from across the country to address complex public policy problems. Its Criminal Justice Reform Initiative brings together national experts in criminal justice, education, and budgeting with the aim of helping local communities develop more effective approaches to public safety. 

Birmingham is among a handful of communities piloting the Justice Governance Partnerships model. Aspen’s CJRI is also working with Grand Rapids, Michigan, and in rural South Carolina, and North Charleston, S.C. 

The formal launch of the JGP follows the release of the Birmingham Crime Commission Report, commissioned by Mayor Woodfin. The commission’s report called for the implementation of evidence-based violence reduction strategies, community engagement and investment, and sustainable governance to implement, monitor, and maintain short-term and long-term solutions. 

The Justice Governance Partnership serves as a vehicle for cooperating around implementation and monitoring progress. Partners across the cooperating organizations provide wide-ranging data to produce a Justice Audit, which quantifies conditions and identifies needs. The Audit is regularly updated to track progress.  

Meanwhile, the ultimate goal is to devise a Justice Reinvestment Plan, which identifies preventive investments that can improve neighborhood conditions and drive down the need for costly emergency responses. The Audit and Reinvestment Plan are tools that aim to identify actionable solutions to improve economic conditions, address violence, and mitigate other risk factors at the local level, focusing on under-served neighborhoods. 

About the Birmingham-Jefferson County Justice Governance Partnership 

The Birmingham-Jefferson County Justice Governance Partnership is a coalition dedicated to fostering a transparent, equitable, and effective justice system in Birmingham and Jefferson County. Through collaboration, policy innovation, and community engagement, the BJC-JGP seeks to address systemic challenges and create lasting change for the benefit of all residents. For more information, visit parcalabama.org/bjc-jgp.

Alabama’s population increased by more than 40,000, between July 2023 and July 2024, reaching a total of 5,157,699, according to estimates issued in December by the U.S. Census Bureau. Alabama ranked 22nd in percentage population increase and No. 24 in numeric population change.

Printable PDF available here.

The number of new Alabama residents arriving from other states (26,028) was down somewhat compared to 2023, part of a national trend of slowing domestic migration. However, international immigration increased over the same period, bringing 15,763 new residents from abroad into the state.

When it comes to natural population change in Alabama’s resident population, deaths exceeded births in 2024, according to the estimates. That is a trend that began in 2020 with the arrival of Covid-19 and has persisted thanks to an aging population and a smaller rising generation producing few babies.

Due to a range of negative health indicators, Alabama’s resident population has a shorter life expectancy than other states, resulting in a higher death rate. Alabama’s birth rate is higher than the U.S. average, but trails states with younger populations and higher levels of international immigration, both of which are associated with more births.

Nationally, international immigration drove population change with 2.8 million new residents coming to the U.S. from abroad during the 2024 estimate period. The highest number of international migrants arrived in Florida (411,322), California (361,057) and Texas (319,569). Alabama has one of lowest rates of international in-migration in the U.S. (ranking No. 43). Despite that, the state did see an increase in new arrivals compared to 2023, when about 13,000 international immigrants arrived. Both the 2023 and 2024 totals for international immigration are about double the average number of arrivals between 2010 and 2020. And far exceed the levels seen during the first Trump administration and the record lows during the pandemic.

The Southeastern U.S. is one of the fastest-growing regions in the U.S. Alabama ranks in the middle of pack of Southeastern states when it comes to population growth, outpacing Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Kentucky, but well behind the rates of growth seen in Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, and Tennessee.

In recent years, Alabamians’ rate of participation in elections has lagged behind other states as electoral competition has decreased and as the state has failed to adopt measures other states have that increase the convenience and access to voting. According to political scientists, Alabama “cost of voting” is among the highest in the country, ranking No. 46 among the 50 states. Meanwhile, most other states now provide measures like early in-person voting and no-excuse absentee voting, measures that correlate with increased participation.

A new report by PARCA, How Alabama Democracy Compares, provides a detailed comparison of Alabama’s approach to voter registration, access to ballots, and democratic participation with those of other states.

This report is an installment of PARCA’s yearlong series on the unfinished work of reforming Alabama’s Constitution. This project is supported, in part, by the Alabama Citizens for Constitutional Reform (ACCR) Foundation.

Alabama has a history of limiting participation in the democratic process. The state’s 1901 Constitution disenfranchised blacks and poor whites for more than half a century, until, inspired by the Civil Rights Movement, the U.S. Congress and federal court swept away discriminatory barriers to voting.

In 2022, Alabama adopted a revised and reorganized state constitution, deleting the last written relics of the original discriminatory language on voting rights. However, the report makes clear that Alabama has not kept pace with other states’ adoption of measures that make it easier and more convenient to register and vote.

In addition to the report, PARCA’s data dashboard includes interactive versions of the charts, with information drawn from the National Conference of State Legislatures, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the University of Florida Election Lab.

After being hit hard with declines during the Covid-19 pandemic, Birmingham and Mobile saw an ebb in population declines, while Huntsville and cities in Baldwin County, along with Auburn-Opelika and Tuscaloosa, continued to grow at a rapid pace. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates released this month point to widespread growth in cities in the northern tier of the state, and in the Wiregrass.

Printable PDF available here.

Populations in smaller towns of the Alabama Black Belt, and west and central Alabama continue to decline modestly, according to the estimates. The population also dropped in Montgomery. The capital city didn’t lose as many people as Birmingham in the first year of the pandemic but has seen steady losses over the past three years.

Montgomery’s estimated population decline of 1,657 was the largest drop among Alabama cities and compares to a decline of 695 in Mobile and 243 in Birmingham.

That allowed Birmingham to return to No. 2 in population among Alabama cities. Huntsville continues to move farther into the lead, with a population now topping 225,000.

In terms of metro area population, Birmingham is still more than twice as large, but growth there is occurring away from the central city.

Close-in suburbs Vestavia, Mountain Brook, and Homewood saw population declines, but farther from the city center, Shelby County cities like Chelsea, Pelham, and Calera saw growth.

Despite declines in Montgomery, Pike Road, Prattville, and Millbrook saw increases.

While Huntsville added the most people, adjacent Athens and not-too-distant Decatur and Florence are continuing to see population growth.

Though Mobile County cities are experiencing some population declines, it is clear that the growth in nearby Baldwin County is coming from domestic in-migration. Far more people are arriving in cities like Fairhope, Foley, Daphne, and Gulf Shores than the population declines in Mobile County would produce.

When looking at the entire country, it is plain to see that whatever population change is going on in Alabama pales in comparison to the movement in other parts of the country. New York City’s population declined by over 77,000 in 2023 according to the estimates. Meanwhile, Texas cities like Fort Worth and San Antonio passed more than 20,000 new residents apiece. Closer to home, Atlanta added over 12,000, Charlotte over 15,000, and Jacksonville, Fla, over 14,000.

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VOICES for Alabama’s Children published the 2023 Alabama Kids Count Data Book today, marking the 30th edition of the book published by the nonprofit. For the 8th year in a row, PARCA worked with VOICES as a data partner for the project.

– Children of color and children in poverty are shown to have much poorer outcomes and much poorer achievements in education.

– Child population continues to decrease. Over the last year, the number of children grew in only 20 of 67 counties.

– Children in Alabama are becoming increasingly more diverse ethnically and racially. While white and Black child populations are declining, since 2000, Hispanic children grew approximately 276%. The Asian/Pacific Islander population grew by 120%.

– The infant mortality rate has slightly decreased from 8.1 to 7.6 per 1,000 live births from 2011-2021. In real numbers, that means that 443 babies did not live to their 1st birthday in 2021. Maternity care is critical. 34.3% of Alabama counties are defined as maternity care deserts. More than 28% of Alabama women had no birthing hospital within 30 minutes, which is more than double the U.S. rate.

– In 2022, the percentage of Alabama high school students meeting college and career ready requirements was 79.1% from 76.5% in 2021.

– 2023 Work-based learning programs (Dual Enrollment and Career Training Programs) are estimated to have had an economic impact of $420,209,126.

– From 2015-2023 there has been a 16.9% increase in the number of children entering foster care services. Parental drug use is the leading reason for children entering foster care, making up 44%, followed by neglect at 22%.

– 10.4% of children in the state are living in extreme poverty. Black and Hispanic populations are disproportionately affected (38.3% and 36.7% respectively), while white children make up 13.5% of children in extreme poverty.

See how children in all 67 counties of our state are faring in education, health, economic security, and more. VOICES believers that every child in Alabama should have access and opportunity to thrive and become all they can be, and hopes that by utilizing this book’s insights, we can identify the challenges, set priorities, track our progress, and achieve real outcomes for children and families.

Access the 2023 Alabama Kids Count Data Book here.

Want to see this data at the national level? Visit the national KIDS COUNT Data Center to access hundreds of indicators, download data and create reports and graphics!

The Huntsville area and Baldwin County continue to add more new residents, while growth in Shelby County and St. Clair County helped the Birmingham Metro Area return to positive growth after two years of population loss. That’s according to new estimates of population change in U.S. counties and metro areas published by the U.S. Census Bureau. The new estimates identify population totals and components of population change as of July 1, 2023.

Printable PDF available here

In addition to the growth in Shelby and St. Clair, Birmingham’s metro population got a boost from an accounting change. In the 2022 estimates, the Birmingham-Hoover MSA ranked No. 50 in population among metropolitan areas and seemed destined to fall out of the top 50 metro areas.

However, in 2023, Walker County was re-added to the Birmingham metro, which boosted the Birmingham MSA population by almost 65,000 and allowed it to climb to the 47th most populous metropolitan area.

Metro areas are clusters of counties where a significant percentage of the population moves back and forth across county lines for work and commerce. According to the most recent data, about 26% of Walker County’s resident workforce commuted to work in Jefferson County or other counties in the MSA. That’s above the 25% threshold that triggers inclusion in the MSA. Walker was historically part of the MSA.

Consisting of 7 counties with a population of 1.2 million, Birmingham is the state’s largest metro area. Huntsville’s MSA, comprised of Limestone and Madison Counties, is second with 527,254.

Trends

As observed in the PARCA’s analysis of state-level estimates released earlier this year, the decline in deaths related to the Covid-19 pandemic improved baseline conditions for population growth. In the 2021 and 2022 estimates, deaths far outnumbered births. In 2023, the number of deaths in Alabama continued to drop, though, due to an aging population and lower birth rate, deaths still outnumbered births.

International immigration to Alabama remains low, but domestic immigration continues to accelerate, according to the estimates. Alabama netted 30,744 new residents through domestic in-migration in 2023, building on an upward trend.

Domestic in-migration is powering population growth in hot spots like Madison, Limestone County, and Baldwin, as well as in suburban counties around Birmingham and Montgomery. In the latter cases, the central county is losing population while suburban counties gain. Across Alabama, 38 of the 67 counties are seeing more people moving into the county than moving out.

Calhoun and Etowah counties, home to Anniston and Gadsden, respectively, are showing population growth after years of decline. Mobile County also grew, breaking a streak of decline. In fact, all of the state’s metro areas posted population gains except for the Columbus, GA—Metro Area, which includes Phenix City and Russell County.

Rural counties, particularly in Alabama’s Black Belt, continued to lose population. The biggest drop in percentage terms was Bullock County, where the population declined by 2.4%, or 246 residents, according to the estimates. Hale County was the exception to the Black Belt trend. Hale added 289 residents, which amounts to a 2% population increase in a year.

In numeric terms, Jefferson County lost the most people, with a decline of 2,186. That is less of a loss than in 2021 or 2022. Deaths were down, births were up, resulting in a positive natural change of 394. International migration added 818, a slight increase over the year before. However, domestic migration remained a drain, with 3,417 more people moving out of the county than moved in, according to estimates.

Montgomery County also continues to see significant domestic outmigration, but a slight rise in international migration and births and a drop in deaths helped offset the outmigration. Montgomery County’s population has decreased by 1,321. Autauga, Elmore, Chilton, and Lee counties grew.

Mobile County grew with a smaller net decline in domestic migration, a slight increase in international migration, and a return to positive natural change (more births than deaths). According to the estimates, Mobile County posted a net addition of 242 residents.

Next-door neighbor Baldwin County added 6,976 people, mostly because of people moving to the coastal county. In percentage terms, the Baldwin County metro area, officially the Daphne-Fairhope-Foley MSA, grew faster than any of the state’s other metro areas.

However, the Huntsville MSA netted the most new residents, with Madison County adding 8,995 and Limestone County adding 3,786. Adjacent North Alabama counties like Lauderdale, Morgan, Marshall, Jackson, Lawrence, and Cullman grew.

The Dothan-area Wiregrass counties also saw population growth, as did counties on the Alabama-Georgia Border like Cleburne, Randolph, and Cherokee.  

Most counties bordering Mississippi lost population. The median age in rural counties tends to be higher, which correlates with higher death rates.

Those counties also tend to experience more people moving out than moving in.

Use the tabs and menus to explore the estimates for counties and metros you are interested in. If you want to see how Alabama compares with the rest of the United States, visualizations of the population estimates and change are available for counties and metros across the country.

Similar stats are available for metro areas as well. Use the controls to zoom in on areas of interest.

PARCA’s most recent public opinion survey finds, once again, aversion to certain taxes, support for public education, and mistrust in state government. At the same time, the survey finds a lack of consensus on how the state should respond to other critical issues.

Among the findings:

• Alabamians continue to rank education as the most important state government activity.

• Large majorities of Alabamians say the state spends too little on education and healthcare.

• Alabamians have an aversion to taxes but say upper-income residents pay too little.

• Alabamians are willing to pay more taxes to support education but do not agree on which taxes should be increased.

• A plurality (48%) of Alabamians would prefer to educate their children in public schools.

• A majority of Alabamians support school choice options.

• A large majority believe private schools receiving state funds should meet all standards required of public schools.

PARCA’s annual public opinion survey was conducted between October 24 and December 26, 2023. The mixed-mode sample includes a mix of respondents from a statewide random digit dialed (RDD) sample of cell and landline numbers and an Internet panel provided by Qualtrics. The poll of over 500 Alabama residents was conducted by Dr. Randolph Horn, Samford University, Assistant Vice President for Enrollment Research and Professor of Political Science. 

Results of the survey indicate many opportunities for officials to demonstrate responsiveness to public concerns and leadership in crafting public policy solutions.

Download the full report here.