According to the latest estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, Jefferson and Mobile counties grew, and Montgomery narrowed its population losses in 2024 thanks to an increase in international migration. International immigration also padded growth in Madison and Baldwin Counties, though growth there was largely driven by domestic migration—new residents moving in from other counties and states.

Printable PDF available here

The latest Census Bureau data provides population estimates for counties and metropolitan areas as of July 1, 2024, and includes underlying estimates of net change due to births, deaths, and movement of residents between counties, states, and other countries. A PARCA analysis of the data finds that:

• Considering births, deaths, and both domestic and international migration, 41 of 67 Alabama counties saw population growth.
• In 54 of Alabama’s 67 counties, deaths exceeded births.
• 26 counties lost population, all rural and mostly in Central Alabama’s Black Belt.
• 42 counties experienced a net gain of residents moving in from other counties or other states.
• 60 counties saw net positive growth from international migration.
• Without that international inflow, 30 of Alabama’s 67 counties would have lost population in 2024.

Natural change, births vs. deaths, provides a backdrop for population growth or decline, and in most Alabama counties, natural change has been negative for several years now. That trend began during the Covid-19 pandemic, but continues, though to a lesser degree. As the large Baby Boom generation ages and experiences higher rates of mortality, the number of deaths increases. Meanwhile, younger generations are having fewer children. The two factors combined create a backdrop of population decline through natural change.

There are exceptions. Fifteen counties are still gaining population through natural increase. Those counties tend to be those where young people make up a disproportionate share of the population: suburban counties and counties with universities. Counties with high percentages of Hispanic residents, like Marshall and Franklin counties, tend to have higher birth rates, offsetting the high death rates typical of rural counties.

High Growth Counties

The two Alabama counties that saw the most population growth—Madison, home to Huntsville, and coastal Baldwin County—each saw more than 6,500 additional residents move in from other counties or states while also drawing some international migrants.

Limestone, the fastest-growing county in percentage terms, added over 4,000 residents through domestic migration but added very few international migrants.

Lee County drew evenly from both sources, adding about 1,500 residents from other counties or states and a similar amount from abroad. Rounding out the top five, Shelby County added from both sources as well, with an estimated 950 net international arrivals and 720 new residents from other counties and states.

Migration

Alabama has continued net positive growth from domestic migration people moving in from other states. Within the state, domestic migration was positive in all counties bordering Tennessee and Florida, and in nine of 11 counties bordering Georgia. Meanwhile, only three of the 10 counties bordering Mississippi experienced a net gain.

Central counties of the larger metropolitan areas tend to see an outflow of population to the surrounding suburban counties. This is true for Jefferson, Montgomery, and Mobile counties. For all three of those countries, an increase in international immigration helped offset those domestic losses.

Metro Areas

All of the state’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) experienced positive population growth. MSAs are counties or groups of counties in which the economies are connected through employment and commuting patterns. The Birmingham MSA’s population increased by over 6,000 residents to nearly 1.2 million. That’s the strongest growth in several years. Over half of those net new residents were the result of international immigration.

Nationally, international immigration was the largest driver of population increase in large metropolitan areas like New York, Miami, Los Angeles, Houston, and Dallas. However, border crossings dropped sharply in the first part of 2024 and have continued to decline. If trends hold, international in-migration will diminish as a factor driving population change in subsequent years.

Alabama’s 2024 high school graduates posted improved performance on the ACT compared to prior years, continuing a positive trend at a time when scores have continued to drift down nationally. The ACT is a standardized test designed to measure a student’s readiness to succeed academically in college.

Printable PDF available here.

Nationally, the composite score was down again and so were scores in all four subjects. Though Alabama’s improvement was slight, it was across the board applying to the four tested subjects.

The percentage of Alabama students achieving benchmark scores also moved up in all four subjects and the percentage of students that benchmarked in all four subjects increased as well. ACT data from prior graduating classes shows that 84% of students who have met all four benchmarks graduate with postsecondary degrees within six years.

In Alabama, the composite scores for Asians, Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics all ticked up. Economically disadvantaged students posted improved scores, as well. One exception to the upward trend was a decrease in the percentage of nonpoverty students achieving the benchmark in English, from 60.2% to 59.6%. Economically disadvantaged students improved in English by 27%, exceeding the benchmark in English, which was 25.3% in 2023.

Still, scores are still well behind where they were pre-pandemic. And both in the state and nationally, scores are well behind 2017, which was the peak of performance. Some academic research links the decline to lingering effects of the Great Recession, which led to cuts in education spending. ACT scores peaked in 2007.

The national average composite score was 19.4 in 2024 (down from 19.5 in 2023). That’s higher than Alabama’s public school average of 17.85. However, the two scores should not be compared. Alabama is one of 9 states that tests all high school students, whether they are college-bound or not. In much of the country, only students applying to a four-year college take the ACT. Despite progress, Alabama high school graduates still have room to improve compared to other states where a comparable percentage of students are tested.

Alabama gives the test to all high school juniors. It serves as a gauge of academic performance for schools. Students who earn a benchmark score in at least one of the four subjects qualify as college—and career-ready, one of ten options for achieving that designation. Students must meet one of those ten college—and career-readiness markers in order to graduate.

During the pandemic, the number of test takers dropped, and the importance of the ACT was somewhat diminished as many schools made the test-optional for admission. However, more recently, many colleges have returned to requiring the test.

Using the tabs and menus, you can explore the data in various ways, including comparing system and school-level results. It’s important to remember that ACT scores tend to correlate with economic advantages and disadvantages. The scatterplot chart below arrays systems by the percentage of economically disadvantaged students from the left to right. The systems with the lowest percentages of economically disadvantaged students are on the right. Systems are positioned vertically based on their average composite score. The higher the circle, the higher the score. The line that slants up from left to right traces a correlation between test scores that rise as the percentage of economic disadvantage declines. The size of each system’s circle represents the enrollment of the system.

When systems are clustered close along that line, that indicates there is a strong correlation between the two values. Systems that fall above the line of prediction are exceeding expectations. An example is the Piedmont City School system. In 2024, 65% of students in that system qualified for a free school lunch due to their family income level. And yet the average scale score for Piedmont students far exceeded many school systems where economic disadvantage rates are lower.

Alabama public school fourth graders are scoring higher in both reading and math than they did prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. Alabama and Louisiana are the only two states where that is true, according to an analysis of the results of the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP).

Printable PDF available here.

In fact, in both reading and math, Alabama fourth graders scored close to the national average in 2024. That’s a remarkable turnaround from 2019, when Alabama 4th graders ranked at or near the bottom in both subjects. Only three states posted more improvement in 4th-grade math than Alabama in 2024.

Alabama has shown more growth in 4^th grade math than any other state since 2019. The vast majority of states have lost ground. Alabama and Louisiana are the only states in which 4th-grade reading performance is higher than in 2019.

NAEP scores are based on standardized tests taken by a sample of students in every state. NAEP scores are known as the nation’s report card. In 2024, Alabama 4^th graders’ performance ranked 33^rd in reading and 31^st in math.

Alabama has made large and targeted investments in early grades reading and math instruction, retraining teachers in research-based instructional techniques, stocking schools with dedicated reading and math coaches, and sending higher levels of support and resources to schools that have struggled academically. Results indicate that the investments may be paying off. Considering the timing and nature of the investment, results should continue to improve if results are sustained. The state is still increasing the percentage of its elementary teachers and administrators who have received reading instruction training. Additionally, the Alabama Literacy Act has highlighted the importance of learning to read since students are required to have demonstrated grade-level reading in order to be promoted to fourth grade. In Math, waves of instructional coaches authorized by the Alabama Numeracy Act continue to be trained and deployed.

The NAEP news is not all positive. Alabama’s progress toward the national average is partly due to declining performance in other states. The national average scale score is down in both subjects and both grades compared to 2019, prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2024, scores were down again, except for 4th-grade math, where there was an improvement nationally.

8th Grade Results

For 8th grade, the news was not good for the nation or for Alabama. And Alabama 8^th graders fared poorly, performing worse in 2024 in both subjects. Compared to other states, Alabama 8th graders ranked No. 46 in reading and 48 in math.

In both reading and math Alabama 8^th graders are scoring lower than Alabama 8^th graders did in the early years of the 21^st Century, giving up gains that had been made over the past decade.

Alabama still trails most Southeastern states in both subjects and both grades. That includes Mississippi, where students outscored Alabama students in both grades and both subjects.

According to the 4th grade results, Alabama made gains not only in the percentage of students reaching the basic level and the proficient level but also in the percentage of students scoring at the advanced level.

Unfortunately, the trend is running in the opposite direction for 8th graders, with smaller percentages of students scoring at the proficient or advanced level.

Nationally and in Alabama, there remains a stubborn score gap between racial and ethnic subgroups of students. Among Alabama fourth graders, white students exceeded the national average for the first time in both subjects. Black fourth graders are also closing the gap with the national average for black students in both subjects. Hispanic students made gains toward the national Hispanic average in math but saw a drop in reading performance.

Using the menu options, you can explore the data further, toggling between grades and subjects to examine changes by year in Alabama and other states and relative ranks among states.

Each year, PARCA uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Annual Survey of State and Local Finances to compare Alabama’s tax collections to the other 50 states. The most recent data comes from the 2022 Fiscal Year. 

Key Findings from this year’s report, How Alabama Taxes Compare, 2024:

• In FY 2022, adjusted for population, Alabama collected less in state and local taxes than all but one other state, Tennessee. 

• Alabama’s per capita property tax collections are the lowest in the nation. That helps owners of homes, farms, and timberland but creates a revenue deficit, leaving state and local governments with less to spend on providing government services such as education, health, and public safety. 

• Alabama’s state and local sales tax rates are among the highest in the U.S., compensating for low property taxes.  

• Alabama’s income tax does not provide the balancing effect income taxes in other states do. Low-income workers begin paying taxes at a lower threshold than any other state. At the other end of the spectrum, Alabama is the only state that allows a full deduction for federal income taxes paid, a tax break that benefits high-income earners. 

Alabama’s rankings in per capita state and local tax collections were generally consistent with rankings in prior years.  

For most of the past thirty years, Alabama has consistently ranked last in the Southeast and last in the U.S. in terms of per capita tax collections. In recent years, Alabama has traded that last-place spot back and forth with Tennessee, thanks to tax-cutting measures in that state. This year, according to the Census survey, Tennessee returned to the bottom spot, collecting $4 less per capita than Alabama. Tennessee’s income tax on dividends continues to decrease as the state phases it out.

Read the full report below or click the link here.

Alabama’s population increased by more than 40,000, between July 2023 and July 2024, reaching a total of 5,157,699, according to estimates issued in December by the U.S. Census Bureau. Alabama ranked 22nd in percentage population increase and No. 24 in numeric population change.

Printable PDF available here.

The number of new Alabama residents arriving from other states (26,028) was down somewhat compared to 2023, part of a national trend of slowing domestic migration. However, international immigration increased over the same period, bringing 15,763 new residents from abroad into the state.

When it comes to natural population change in Alabama’s resident population, deaths exceeded births in 2024, according to the estimates. That is a trend that began in 2020 with the arrival of Covid-19 and has persisted thanks to an aging population and a smaller rising generation producing few babies.

Due to a range of negative health indicators, Alabama’s resident population has a shorter life expectancy than other states, resulting in a higher death rate. Alabama’s birth rate is higher than the U.S. average, but trails states with younger populations and higher levels of international immigration, both of which are associated with more births.

Nationally, international immigration drove population change with 2.8 million new residents coming to the U.S. from abroad during the 2024 estimate period. The highest number of international migrants arrived in Florida (411,322), California (361,057) and Texas (319,569). Alabama has one of lowest rates of international in-migration in the U.S. (ranking No. 43). Despite that, the state did see an increase in new arrivals compared to 2023, when about 13,000 international immigrants arrived. Both the 2023 and 2024 totals for international immigration are about double the average number of arrivals between 2010 and 2020. And far exceed the levels seen during the first Trump administration and the record lows during the pandemic.

The Southeastern U.S. is one of the fastest-growing regions in the U.S. Alabama ranks in the middle of pack of Southeastern states when it comes to population growth, outpacing Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Kentucky, but well behind the rates of growth seen in Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, and Tennessee.

Alabama tax revenues continue to trend toward more normal patterns after a wild post-pandemic ride. The Education Trust Fund, powered by state income and sales taxes, grew modestly, collecting 2.2% more than the previous year. Meanwhile, growth in the General Fund cooled but still posted an unusually high increase of 7%, boosted by high interest earned on state deposits and continued growth in tax revenue from online sales, insurance, and property taxes.

The General Fund (GF) supports non-education spending, while the Education Trust Fund (ETF) supports spending on K-12 schools, colleges and universities. From FY 2021 through FY 2023, the two funds saw unusual surges of growth related to post-pandemic economic conditions and shifting patterns of consumption.

In 2024, the GF maintained its winning streak. Thanks to budget surpluses, replenished stockpiles of rainy day reserves, and federal relief and investment funds deposited in state accounts, Alabama has a growing body of cash in its accounts, which earn interest. At the same time, interest rates have stayed high as the Federal Reserve tries to cool inflation. As a result, the state revenues from interest grew by more than $150 million, up to $557 million.

Scroll below or click this link to continue reading PARCA’s latest report, Alabama State Tax Collections, 2024: Increases, Decreases and Trends in the Revenue Supporting the State Government.

Alabama student performance in English Language Arts improved significantly in 2024, with the largest spike coming in third grade as the Alabama Literacy Act came into full effect. That’s according to a PARCA analysis of results of the Alabama Comprehensive Assessment Program (ACAP), the state’s suite of standardized tests for students in grades 3-8. ELA performance improved at every grade level.

The percentage of third graders who scored proficient on the ELA test climbed from 53% in 2023 to 62% in 2024, an increase in the ELA proficiency rate for third graders of 9 percentage points. It’s unusual for performance to jump that much from one year to the next. Multiple factors likely contributed: the new requirement that students pass the third-grade reading test to be promoted to fourth, the compounding effect of the statewide, multi-year effort to improve early grades reading instruction, and the greater distance in time since Covid-19 disruptions to schooling.

Figure 2. ACAP Proficiency by year, by grade by subject

Math and Science

The percentage of students scoring proficient in math was up in every grade but third, but the gains were more incremental. In third grade, 42.2% of students scored proficient in 2024 compared to 43.6% in 2023. Meanwhile, fourth and fifth graders both posted three percentage point increases in proficiency compared to the fourth and fifth graders of 2023. The state’s roll out of its math improvement plan is at an earlier stage than the literacy plan. The Alabama Numeracy Act, which passed the Legislature in 2022, mimicked many of the approaches employed by the Alabama Literacy Act, including deploying coaches to elementary schools to help classroom teachers improve early-grades math instruction. Those interventions, backed by increased investments, are ramping up.

In science, the percentage of fourth graders scoring proficient climbed from 41% to nearly 44.5%, but the percentage of eighth graders scoring proficient in science declined from 41.1% of eighth graders in 2023 to 38.7% proficient in 2024.

Subgroup Performance

Proficiency was up across all student subpopulations, with economically disadvantaged students posting the highest percentage point increases. Across all subjects and grades, economically disadvantaged students’ proficiency increased by six percentage points. Black student proficiency climbed by 3.4 percentage points, a bigger percentage gain than White students. White student proficiency increased by 2.1 percentage points. Hispanic proficiency increased by one percentage point.

Still, the gaps between Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics remain wide, with White grade-level proficiency rates in the range of 20 percentage points higher in ELA and Math. Meanwhile, Asian students achieve proficiency rates that are 15 percentage points or more higher than Whites.

Figure 3. ACAP Proficiency by subgroup, by year. Use menus to focus on subject or grade.

Why would ELA scores have jumped?

According to State Department officials, no changes were made to the grading or contents of the third-grade ELA tests that would have influenced the proficiency gains. The State Department of Education did approve a change to the score threshold for reading “sufficiency,” which serves as the bar a third-grade student has to clear to demonstrate readiness to move to the fourth grade. However, that change did not affect the definition of proficiency in English Language Arts.

One obvious explanation for the rise is that this year’s third-grade ACAP ELA test really mattered. A subset of questions on the third-grade test constituted a test of grade-level reading sufficiency. If third graders didn’t score above the sufficiency line, they were in danger of being required to repeat the third grade.

Even though the Alabama Literacy Act was passed in 2019, that retention provision was suspended in light of the Covid-19 pandemic. But as of this spring, teachers, parents, and students knew that the students had to clear the bar. Even though that sufficiency threshold was lower than the proficiency bar, the higher stakes likely increased attention and effort on the third-grade ELA test as a whole.

Another factor could be that this year’s third graders had less disruption to learning from the Covid-19 pandemic. Students taking the test in 2024 missed the end of Pre-K and had a disrupted kindergarten year due to Covid. However, grades 1-3, which are focused on learning to read, were normal.

Finally, and fundamentally, the rise in third-grade ELA scores and ELA scores across the board indicates that the state’s investment in reading instruction is paying off. The passage of the Literacy Act brought with it a renewed investment in early grades reading instruction. Funding for the Alabama Reading Initiative has more than doubled to over $100 million annually. That spending supported:

• Thousands of teachers trained or retrained in reading instruction grounded in the “science of reading. “
• Every school with grades K-3 having a dedicated reading coach, focused exclusively on grades K-3, working with teachers to improve reading instruction.
• A corps of state-trained reading specialists deployed to support teachers and coaches, particularly in struggling schools.
• Schools identifying struggling readers as early as Kindergarten, informing parents, and developing reading intervention plans to bring the child to reading sufficiency.
• Struggling students screened for learning challenges and receiving the support of specialists.

A Growing Percentage of Students Reaching The Top Performance Level

Some observers worried that the shift in emphasis to the science of reading approach, which includes an emphasis on phonics, might help students who were having problems learning to read, but it might slow progress for students who picked up reading skills more readily. However, ACAP results show strong growth in the percentage of third-grade students who are exceeding grade level proficiency, scoring at Level 4 (the portion of the bar chart below that is shaded dark green.) Up to 20% of third-grade students are now in that highest performance level compared to 12% that fell into that group in 2021.

The portion of the bar in light green, Level 2, indicates the percentage of students meeting grade-level expectations, which has grown from 39% to 42%.

The group that has shrunk the most is those approaching grade level but scoring below the threshold: 40% of 3rd graders fell into that category in 2021, but only 27% did in 2024.

However, the percentage of students well below grade level has remained stubbornly low at around 10 percent. 2024’s scores represent progress from 2023, when 14% of students fell into Level 1. However, looking back to 2021 and 2022 scores, the percentage of students in that lowest level has remained consistent.

Figure 4. Percentage of Students at Each Level of Performance on ACAP. Students scoring at Level 3 or 4 are considered on or above grade level.

Scores Considered in Context

Performance comparisons between school systems and schools can provide significant insight. Learning from high-performing districts can help spur the spread of best practices. However, when making comparisons, it is important to consider performance in the context of the demographics of the schools and systems.

Economically disadvantaged students tend, on average, to score lower than students from more affluent homes. The greater the share of economically disadvantaged students at a school or in a system, the greater the resources and efforts needed to help all students reach high percentage levels of proficiency.

Figure 5 places school systems on a scatterplot graph based on two characteristics: systems with the highest percentage of poverty are positioned to the left with diminishing levels of economic disadvantage as you move right. The vertical axis represents the percentage of students scoring proficient or above—the higher the percentage of proficient students, the higher the position of the system on the chart.

The line in the middle is the line of prediction: the level of proficiency a system would be expected to achieve based on its level of economic disadvantage. Systems that land above the line are exceeding expectations. The chart allows comparisons of performance among systems that are similar in terms of economic makeup. The size of the circle representing the system corresponds to the overall enrollment of the system. The graph is selected to display a mashup of proficiency levels for all students, all grades, and all subjects. Using the menus on the right, a user can refine selections to look at selected systems, characteristics, grade levels and subjects.

Figure 5. Proficiency in the Context of Poverty, 2024

Using the tabs at the top of the visualization and the various menus available, users can explore the latest ACAP data from a variety of perspectives, from school level to grade level, by subject and grade. On the bottom right of the visualization is an option that allows the user to display the visualization in full-screen format. The visualization below is a school-level scatterplot graph depicting performance in the context of poverty. Like the results at the system level, the chart indicates that proficiency levels increase as the level of economic disadvantage decreases. However, the correlation is not as strong among schools, demonstrating that individual schools and teachers make a difference in outcomes, regardless of the economic background of the children in the classroom.

Alabama third graders showed major improvement in reading performance in 2024, as the percentage of Alabama students reading sufficiently by the end of third grade jumped by 8 percentage points compared to the previous year. The number of 3rd graders scoring “below grade level” on reading decreased from over 9,000 in 2023 to under 5,000 in 2024, from 17% to 9% of third graders, according to results released earlier this month by the Alabama State Department of Education.

Printable PDF available here.

The Department contracts with PARCA to evaluate the Department’s implementation of the Literacy Act. PARCA’s evaluation and public research divisions operate separately.

Figure 1. ACAP reading performance 2023-2024 compared

Investments in Better Instruction and Support

The improving reading performance comes after significant investment and effort in improving reading instruction, a push launched after the passage of the Alabama Literacy Act of 2019. Funding for the Alabama Reading Initiative has more than doubled to over $100 million annually. That spending supported:

• Thousands of teachers trained or retrained in reading instruction grounded in the “science of reading.“
• Every school with grades K-3 having a dedicated reading coach, focused exclusively on grades K-3, working with teachers to improve reading instruction.
• A corps of state-trained reading specialists deployed to support teachers and coaches, with a particular concentration on struggling schools.
• Schools identifying struggling readers as early as Kindergarten, informing parents, and developing reading intervention plans to bring the child to reading sufficiency.
• Struggling students being screened for learning challenges and receiving the support of specialists.

Other factors (see below) also may be influencing the gains, but the initiative appears to be yielding positive results.

Big Gains by Schools with High-Levels of Economic Disadvantage

This year, the biggest improvements were among high-poverty, high-academic-challenge schools. Yes, those schools had more room for improvement, but the gains were substantial, and only a handful of systems lost ground. Top improving systems included smaller rural systems like Perry and Greene counties, plus Anniston City Schools. Charter schools like Breakthrough Charter School in Perry County, and Legacy Prep and i3 Academy in Jefferson County also showed improvement. Life Academy also shows up as a top gainer, but in percentage terms, the school still trails most districts, with 25% of its students not reading sufficiently, according to the ACAP.

Figure 2. Gains in performance, 2024 and 2023 compared

Among large systems, Birmingham City Schools was the top in percentage point improvement, cutting the percentage of its students reading below grade level in half. Montgomery County School System was close behind with an 18-percentage point improvement. However, both systems, which have higher concentrations of economically disadvantaged students, still have almost 20% of students below the reading sufficiency threshold.

Because of their size, Montgomery County ranks No. 2 and Birmingham City No. 3 in the number of students below grade level. Birmingham had 319 students who failed to hit the mark, and Montgomery had 393. Mobile, the state’s largest school system, had 476 students below the threshold, representing 13% of tested third graders. Figure 3 positions school systems on the graph according to two measures. Systems with a high percentage of students reading on grade level are higher on the chart. Systems with low rates of student poverty are to the right of the chart and are shaded green.

Systems with higher poverty rates are shaded red and are arrayed on the left side of the chart. The size of the circle and the number represent the number of students not reading sufficiently. In general, systems with higher rates of poverty have higher numbers of students who aren’t testing on grade level for reading.

While a system’s poverty rate is somewhat predictive of its reading performance rate, this chart shows a good deal of variance among systems, indicating that high-quality teaching can overcome economic disadvantage.

Figure 3. Performance in the context of economic disadvantage, by system

School-level results show an even wider spread, and poverty levels are even less predictive of performance. Use the tabs and menus to explore and narrow the results to focus in on schools and systems of interest.

Figure 4. Performance in the context of economic disadvantage, by school

Other factors: Pandemic Recovery

One factor that may have contributed to higher success rates among students is the increased recovery time since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. This year’s third graders were in Pre-K when COVID-19 hit, and for many, their Kindergarten year was at least partially disrupted by pandemic-related school closures or modified schedules. However, those children have now had three full years of regular instruction by teachers with up-to-date training in reading instruction.

This year’s second graders also scored better than last year’s second graders, which suggests the combination of stable school conditions and improved instruction could lead to further improvement in subsequent years.

Other Factors: Consequences Spur Urgency

Another factor likely influenced improved performance was a greater sense of urgency. This spring, the final prong of the Literacy Act went into effect. Students who didn’t clear the reading sufficiency bar on the ACAP may be required to repeat the third grade. Affected students can attend a summer reading boot camp at the end of which they can be retested. In addition to the retest, there are some exceptions and alternatives that can result in the child going on to the next grade.

Regardless, school systems, parents, and students had extra motivation to clear the sufficiency benchmark. Students and parents were motivated to avoid retention. Schools wanted to avoid having high numbers of students repeat third grade.

Even though the retention provision wasn’t in effect, the number of students repeating Kindergarten, first, or second grade has risen starting in the 2020-2021 school year. Some of that might be related to lost learning due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it may also be due to schools and parents becoming more aware of the need for students to master grade-level material before advancing to the next grade. Education researchers find benefits for students retained in the earliest grades, but negative consequences for retention in middle school.

Other Factors: Practice Makes Perfect

The state also provided schools with access to ACAP practice tests this year, which allowed teachers and students to get more comfortable with the format of the test and the kind of material presented. ACAP was first given in the 2020-2021 school year. It is a test specifically developed by Alabama, and it reflects the content Alabama students are expected to master. Adjustments to the test were made in the 2022-2023 school year to reflect updates to the English Language Course of Study. Teachers have now had more time to absorb and practice teaching the content.

Why the attention on third-grade reading?

From the time they enter school through the end of third grade, students are learning to read. Starting in fourth grade, students are expected to read to learn the material presented to them. If children can’t read in the fourth grade, they are more likely to fall behind. Academic research finds that students who aren’t reading on grade level by the end of third grade are four times less likely to graduate from high school than proficient readers. That disadvantage is further compounded if the students are Black, Hispanic, and/or poor. Research finds a correlation between early grades reading struggles, discipline problems in school, and lower levels of educational attainment and earnings later in life.

Alabama’s Literacy Act followed similar legislation in Florida and Mississippi. Both those states have seen large gains in reading scores on the National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP), which provides the only comparative measures of student academic performance across states. Mississippi and Florida have higher reading scores than Alabama, and both perform above the national average. The results of the most recent NAEP, taken in 2022, contained an early positive hint. Alabama was one of only five states to make gains in fourth grade reading as most states lost ground in the wake of the pandemic.

Reality check: What does reading sufficiently really mean?

Terms like reading sufficiency, reading on grade level, and grade-level proficiency can be confusing, and the measures for such terms have been shifting over time based on reappraisals of test data.

When the State Department of Education released the reading data described in this report, it calculated the percentage and number of students as either “Below Grade Level” or “At or Above Grade Level.”

But here’s the fine print. A third-grade student can score anywhere between 275 and 740 on the ACAP Reading, which is a subset of the broader ACAP English Language Arts standardized test. (For an in-depth account of this issue, read the account provided by Trisha Crain Powell of al.com). Evaluating the ACAP Reading content and results, experts determined that students with a score of 473 would be on grade level, not proficient, but on grade level.

However, tests aren’t perfect measures, so practitioners calculate, based on results, a range of scores in which students might fall and still be on or about grade level.

Examining the results and making calculations, the testing experts recommended a cut score of 435, which is two standard errors below the grade-level mark. If a student scores under 435, the statistics indicate that there is more than a 90 percent chance that the student is truly below grade level. The lower cut score gives educators a higher level of confidence that the student in question doesn’t have the reading skills needed to succeed in 4th grade.

However, that also means that a lot of students who score between 435 and 473 might not be reading on grade level. And those students are more likely to run into struggles as learning after third grade increasingly depends on the ability to read.

The second-grade results also need explanation. On the recommendation of testing experts, the State Board of Education adopted a more rigorous cut score for the second graders of 455. That leads to a higher percentage of second graders being identified as below grade level. That means that more children in second grade will be identified and provided with extra support in hopes of getting them up to grade level by the end of third grade.

Figure 5. Second Grade ACAP Reading Results, 2023 and 2024 compared

The State Department of Education has signaled its intention to raise the cut score over time, bringing the reading sufficiency measure closer to the mark for grade-level reading. Mississippi used a similar approach as it phased in its literacy act.

In recent years, Alabamians’ rate of participation in elections has lagged behind other states as electoral competition has decreased and as the state has failed to adopt measures other states have that increase the convenience and access to voting. According to political scientists, Alabama “cost of voting” is among the highest in the country, ranking No. 46 among the 50 states. Meanwhile, most other states now provide measures like early in-person voting and no-excuse absentee voting, measures that correlate with increased participation.

A new report by PARCA, How Alabama Democracy Compares, provides a detailed comparison of Alabama’s approach to voter registration, access to ballots, and democratic participation with those of other states.

This report is an installment of PARCA’s yearlong series on the unfinished work of reforming Alabama’s Constitution. This project is supported, in part, by the Alabama Citizens for Constitutional Reform (ACCR) Foundation.

Alabama has a history of limiting participation in the democratic process. The state’s 1901 Constitution disenfranchised blacks and poor whites for more than half a century, until, inspired by the Civil Rights Movement, the U.S. Congress and federal court swept away discriminatory barriers to voting.

In 2022, Alabama adopted a revised and reorganized state constitution, deleting the last written relics of the original discriminatory language on voting rights. However, the report makes clear that Alabama has not kept pace with other states’ adoption of measures that make it easier and more convenient to register and vote.

In addition to the report, PARCA’s data dashboard includes interactive versions of the charts, with information drawn from the National Conference of State Legislatures, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the University of Florida Election Lab.

After being hit hard with declines during the Covid-19 pandemic, Birmingham and Mobile saw an ebb in population declines, while Huntsville and cities in Baldwin County, along with Auburn-Opelika and Tuscaloosa, continued to grow at a rapid pace. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates released this month point to widespread growth in cities in the northern tier of the state, and in the Wiregrass.

Printable PDF available here.

Populations in smaller towns of the Alabama Black Belt, and west and central Alabama continue to decline modestly, according to the estimates. The population also dropped in Montgomery. The capital city didn’t lose as many people as Birmingham in the first year of the pandemic but has seen steady losses over the past three years.

Montgomery’s estimated population decline of 1,657 was the largest drop among Alabama cities and compares to a decline of 695 in Mobile and 243 in Birmingham.

That allowed Birmingham to return to No. 2 in population among Alabama cities. Huntsville continues to move farther into the lead, with a population now topping 225,000.

In terms of metro area population, Birmingham is still more than twice as large, but growth there is occurring away from the central city.

Close-in suburbs Vestavia, Mountain Brook, and Homewood saw population declines, but farther from the city center, Shelby County cities like Chelsea, Pelham, and Calera saw growth.

Despite declines in Montgomery, Pike Road, Prattville, and Millbrook saw increases.

While Huntsville added the most people, adjacent Athens and not-too-distant Decatur and Florence are continuing to see population growth.

Though Mobile County cities are experiencing some population declines, it is clear that the growth in nearby Baldwin County is coming from domestic in-migration. Far more people are arriving in cities like Fairhope, Foley, Daphne, and Gulf Shores than the population declines in Mobile County would produce.

When looking at the entire country, it is plain to see that whatever population change is going on in Alabama pales in comparison to the movement in other parts of the country. New York City’s population declined by over 77,000 in 2023 according to the estimates. Meanwhile, Texas cities like Fort Worth and San Antonio passed more than 20,000 new residents apiece. Closer to home, Atlanta added over 12,000, Charlotte over 15,000, and Jacksonville, Fla, over 14,000.

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